Bring a book name "Managing in gray" that will help you all learn to make the right decisions in your life and your management. When you live in a working society and business, you will surely face problems. And sometimes, the methods you use to solve your problems are not correct. Including not thinking things through from all angles, which can cause you to lose opportunities, time, and even friendships.
Before we get to talking about this gray strategy, let's first talk about gray problems. A gray problem refers to a situation that is complex, involves many factors, and has high risks. Using general problem-solving methods to solve these gray problems will not yield good results. Therefore, you need to know the gray strategy to solve this type of problem. This book will show you the strategy for solving problems and wake you up from the conventional way of thinking you have used in the past. For example, say you are the CEO of a pharmaceutical company. Recently, you discovered a new breakthrough, a special medicine that can help treat a type of cancer. You have already tested it and found that this type of medicine is indeed especially effective.
So, you decide to release this medicine to the market. You conducted a trial on over 7,000 people to use your drug. And you have expanded production, sales, and marketing for this type of drug. Your company's stock price goes up day by day. A few months later, a person from your trial who used your drug dies from a brain hemorrhage. A week later, another person also dies, who was also using the same drug, and they also died from a brain hemorrhage. If only one person died, it might be called a coincidence. But here, two people died at around the same time with the same symptoms. It can be concluded that these deaths are likely related to the cancer drug your company produced. As a CEO, what decision would you make? This problem is very complex. It can affect the future of the company, the shareholders, face legal consequences, and the lives of thousands of people who participated in the trial.
You don't know what kind of decision to make, what to do first, or what to do later. Is it possible that you will announce to the world to stop using this drug immediately, as it might affect your brain's blood vessels? Or should you conduct a thorough investigation first before speaking? This matter is very high-risk. No matter what decision you make, it could decide the life or death of your company. And if you make the wrong decision and don't solve it well, you might face legal action and even go to jail. This story is an example of a gray problem. The special characteristic of a gray problem is not only its complexity and high risk, but it's also a problem that is not easy to solve.
This type of problem involves emotions, personal matters, status, reputation, ethics, and social context. Things that are not black or white, that can't be clearly divided, are called gray problems. This book will teach you how to solve this type of problem. It's not only useful for managers, but can also be applied in daily life. Today I will spend 20 minutes to summarize the important content in this book. I found three phrases that the author repeatedly mentioned, which are:
First, if you believe in yourself too much, you will be in danger. Second, if you only think about results, you will lose many things. Third, if you only work hard at one thing, you will lose. How about that? Hearing these three points, you probably immediately disagree. That's okay, we will explain these points one by one for all of you . Point one, why shouldn't you believe in yourself too much? We have spoken at many universities telling people to believe in themselves. Why does this book tell us not to believe in ourselves? Let's look at an example first. In 1996, in the United States, a textile factory was burned to the ground, with almost nothing left. The main character in this story is the owner of that textile factory, who is facing a gray problem. He is looking for a solution, and after the problem occurred, his factory burned down completely. Only ashes were left.
He didn't know what to do. Should he rebuild the factory? The money from insurance might not be enough to rebuild the factory. Furthermore, during the time of rebuilding, he would surely lose many customers and partners. But the factory is his life's work for many years, and the hard work of his employees has also contributed to the factory's growth until today. He should not give up at this point. Faced with so many uncertainties, the factory owner made a firm decision to start rebuilding the factory. Not only that, during the construction of the factory, he paid his employees their full salaries and even told them that when the factory is rebuilt, they can all come back to work as usual. At that time, most US factories were not built in the region. Most were built in areas with cheap labor, such as Asia and Africa. Even if they were built in the region, they didn't use local labor. Speaking of his workers and the people in his area, this decision was very right.
It not only provided job opportunities for employees and people in the area, but also helped the local economy grow. The factory owner's promise received great respect and admiration from people in society, and the local media also praised his heroism and entrepreneurial spirit. In 1997, he was invited by US President Bill Clinton as a guest of honor to several major events. Then, not long after, his factory declared bankruptcy and closed its doors. Why? Where did the mistake happen? Did the factory owner make the wrong decision to get such a result? You are underestimating this story. His initial start was not wrong at all. Taking care of and thinking on behalf of the workers, persevering after failure, were all the right decisions at that time. He is a man with a firm decision, a clear direction, and takes actions full of ethics as a boss. And this was the best right decision he could make when he failed. So where is the mistake? Everyone has their own weaknesses. One reason you fail when facing a gray problem is believing in yourself too much. Why do I say this? An experiment was once conducted on many people, asking a simple question:
When you die, do you think you will go to heaven or hell? Almost 89% of all those people believed they were good enough to go to heaven. when they die. Valuing oneself highly is normal. Especially as a manager, there are common traits. They are always full of confidence and have a high ability to manage situations. But when you believe in yourself too much, you lose your sense of judgment, you can't see the reasons and the truth, which makes it easy for all of you to make the wrong decision. and you won't see the risks that might arise. How can we avoid this pitfall of thinking? How can we make a decision based on correct reasoning, without being biased by emotions or the surrounding context? The author of this book, Joseph Badaracco, suggests you draw a tree, which he calls the "decision tree." Step 1: Write down all the possible solutions that can solve the problem. This means you have to think of all the options that can solve the problem. Don't make any decision yet. As in the example above, the factory owner should not have rushed to decide to rebuild the factory.
He should have thought first about what other options there were. Then you have to think broadly, write down the things that can be done at that time. For example, first, you can write: rebuild the factory. Or you can write: abandon the factory, create a new factory producing raw materials. Or you can write: decide to rebuild the factory, but choose a different location. In summary, when you write down more options, you will have more choices, and then you will no longer be stuck in thinking with only one option. After you have written down many options, you must continue to step 2. Write down all the consequences that could happen when you choose any option. Directly or indirectly, you must write them all down. You can research documents and information you can find, such as relevant laws, insurance compensation, local policies, market conditions, etc., in as much detail as possible to support your arguments. And you can also ask yourself some more questions, such as... If the factory hadn't burned down, what would its situation be? Could it still make a profit?
Sometimes, even if the factory didn't burn down, it might have had to close due to political factors or market competition. If the factory owner had asked himself these questions first, he might have seen that at that time, many factories in the US were already closing down one by one. Choosing to rebuild the factory might not have been the best option. He could have chosen better by abandoning a business that had no future and coming back to think about new opportunities and invest in a new factory that could provide reasonable compensation to the workers, then take the capable ones to train for new work together. Perhaps the outcome would not have been like this. Besides believing in yourself too much, which is a weakness of a decision-maker, people have many other weaknesses. How can you avoid making wrong decisions due to your own weaknesses? You can look at the people around you. It could be siblings, friends, or subordinates. Who is the best at solving ambiguous problems? Who thinks differently from others, thinks without limits, and doesn't care about other problems around them. This type of person will become your consultant when you face a problem. Another thing, in every meeting, you can appoint one or two people to be the "devil's advocate."
This means they are to find faults, to disagree, to object, and to ask for reasons, especially in meetings with the boss present. Generally, when the boss makes a decision, the subordinates always follow. There isn't much discussion. No objections, no suggestions, everyone agrees with what the boss has decided. But the boss's decision is not always right. Therefore, we need one or two people to object, to raise questions, so that the meeting is effective and yields good results. Whether the objection has a reason or not, doing this is for the purpose of encouraging employees to be brave and for the meeting atmosphere to be lively, making employees think more broadly. At this point, you probably understand that not being told to believe in yourself too much doesn't mean a manager shouldn't have confidence. But you must recognize that everyone has weaknesses. So you must learn to listen to others' opinions and consider them. A good manager knows how to make reasonable decisions and always reflects on their own decisions. They know how to draw a decision tree, avoiding their own weaknesses from clouding their judgment and leading to wrong decisions.
But thinking alone is not enough. You need a group of people you can discuss with, and even arrange for one or two people to be the devil's advocate, to find faults and ask questions, so that your thinking will yield good and comprehensive results. After talking about wrong decisions that arise from being overconfident, we move to the second point: if you only look at the results, you will probably lose many things. In fact, some principles that people talk about all have their reasons. As a human, you need to understand this point and also try to understand why they say so. If you don't think things through, you might immediately reject what they say. The author has raised three phrases to support his argument. Phrase one: think about the results. Phrase two: think about ethics. Phrase three: think about humanity. Many managers tell their staff, "I don't care how you do it, just bring me the results." Saying this is not a problem as a manager. Thinking about results is a good thing. This type of person is called result-oriented. But for gray problems, please be careful about your thinking. As the manager of an institution, using few resources and capital to get a lot of benefits and huge profits for the company is the right thing to do. If you don't have a lot of profit, you can't continue operations. Just like there's a phrase in the book Rework, which I have already summarized. where it says... Every decision or rule-making must consider the benefits and profits. If any activity does not create benefits or profits for the company, you should consider abandoning it. But to ask in return, is thinking only about personal benefits enough? You have probably heard of the trolley problem, which is an experiment on decision-making: save one person or save six people.
In this experiment, they give you a remote control for a train. This remote can control the direction of a train that is moving very fast on the track. Ahead, the track splits into two. On the first track, there is one person tied to the railroad tracks. And on the other track, six people are tied to the railroad tracks. In a situation where the train cannot stop, what decision would you make? Most people decide to run over the one person. After all, losing one life is better than losing six. But if the character who is tied up is changed a little, your decision will not be so easy. What if the person tied to the railroad track is your family member? Would your decision change? The author did another experiment. Suppose one day, three police officers knock on your door. They tell you that six people are in mortal danger and need organ transplants. One life to save six. Are you brave enough? Are you brave enough to trade your own life for the lives of those six people? You probably think, "People are selfish." Who would trade their own life for others? And if you were the doctor, would you dare to take one life to save six? Even if you think trading one life for six is a profitable deal, you know you can't do that. Human ethics do not allow you to do such a thing. Besides ethics, you must have humanity.
Humans are not machines. They have emotions and humanity inside them. No matter how bad a person is. In leadership, it's the same. In World War II, in 1945, the United States dropped two atomic bombs on the cities of Hiroshima and Nagasaki in Japan. In Hiroshima, more than 200,000 people died. A few days after dropping the bombs, the 33rd President of the United States, Harry Truman, was deeply remorseful, knowing he had killed many innocent children. And later, he announced that no more atomic bombs would be dropped in the Asia-Pacific region without his permission. Regarding this, there is no explanation as to whether he made this decision because it could affect world peace or for personal reasons, as he could not accept the deaths of those innocent children. This is humanity. As a human, there is not much explanation, and there are no clear principles or standards. In this book, they raised another example. If you are a manager in a company, recently an old employee of yours has worked in your company for over 30 years. Recently, his work has been ineffective. He often fails to complete his work and even has a bad influence on new employees.
Other leaders all want to fire him. As for you, you have had a good relationship with that employee. And you know that he has contributed a lot of labor to the company. The company is where it is today partly because of his contribution. Now he is old, his strength and memory are not good, so he cannot perform his job as well as before. You know that if you fire him now, he will lose his main source of income, and his family will have problems. As a manager of a company, what principles do you stand on? And what decision will you make? If you only look at the results, how to make the company get more profit, generate income, reduce expenses, and things that don't add value to the company must be cut. But if you make a decision like that, you will lose a loyal employee. This is the second point that this book raised. Think about the results, and you will lose many good things. If you think about humanity, especially, you might think further: if I fire him now, what could he do? Could he kill himself because of this? Or could he do other unexpected things, like burning down the factory or stealing company assets? It's all possible. In summary, before making a decision on a gray problem, you must consider three important points. First, you must think about the results you want.
Then you must think about the social context. Then you must not overlook ethics and humanity. If you don't use these three elements to make a decision, your decision will surely have problems. You must consider carefully the factors that can influence your decision. Now for the third point: if you only work hard at one thing, you will lose. The author of the book "The Prince" said that this world can be summarized in three words. Unpredictable, uncontrollable, and a messy world. In today's society, what everyone thinks is good might be a trick, and sometimes things that seem good turn out not to be successful. And they get destroyed by a few bad people or things. Why is that? Is doing a good thing wrong? I will give you an example to listen to. For example, you are the head of a sales team for a company. Recently, a new employee joined your team. This new employee doesn't get along well with your sales team and often fails to complete tasks. As a team leader, what should you do? I'll tell you another thing: this new employee joined your team because he has a good relationship with your boss. If you stand on the principle of a manager, a team, what would you do?
Would you decide to tell your superiors to remove him, or would you turn a blind eye, pretending not to know? In fact, this is a true story, not an example. In this story, the team leader decided to request his superiors to fire that team member. Of course, he had also reminded that team member many times to work hard and get along well with the team. But there were still no results. As a result, that team leader was called in by his boss. Not only was the team member not fired, but he was also scolded, saying that the team leader's management was not good. When things get to this point, there are generally three possible outcomes. First, the team leader pretends not to know about that team member and continues to work as usual. Second, he maintains his position, but there might be pressure from superiors, or he might resign himself. Third, he sees that the company culture is not good, quits this job, and finds a new one. What did that team leader do? After discussing with his boss, who is the CEO, he found that he, the team leader, was using principles too rigidly, not being flexible according to the situation. In fact, if he decided to resign from his position and find a new job, it's not certain that the new place wouldn't have such problems. The team leader did not want to quit that job, and he also did not want that team member to continue to have a bad influence on other team members. Then, the team leader decided to talk one-on-one with that team member. He found out that the team member wasn't working hard and didn't get along with other team members because he didn't really like this type of work. The team leader, knowing this, helped him find information about new jobs, helped him find jobs and positions he was interested in, and even promised to write a letter of recommendation for him to use at the new place. A few days later, that team member resigned on his own.
The problem was solved peacefully, and both of them were happy. You see? Trying too hard to do a good job, being too rigid, and not being flexible according to the situation is not a good thing. A person who knows how to make good decisions will know how to find a method where all parties can benefit. It's like a win-win strategy. Not only can it make others receive benefits, but it also maintains one's own virtues and interests. This is the third point of solving gray problems. Think about the interests of the involved parties, find a solution that everyone can accept. Now let's go back to the example of the cancer drug from earlier. That drug is certainly effective. But it might cause a small portion of users to develop other diseases. But your company has invested a huge amount of money in this project. The company's stock price is also in a dangerous situation. As a CEO, what decision would you make? This is a very complex matter. It involves many things, including profit, some duties to face, and not knowing where to start. To solve the problem peacefully and ensure the reputation and profit of the company. I will tell you all how that CEO used the "Managing in Gray" strategy and how he solved the problem above. This is a true story. That CEO's name is James. After he learned that the people who participated in the trial of his drug had developed brain cancer, he did not take immediate action. He did not want to have the same result as the factory owner in the example above.
He reported this to the U.S. Food and Drug Administration and ordered the drug production department in his company to temporarily halt production. Then, he spent a week creating a special secret task force of his own to conduct further investigation into the effectiveness and side effects of the drug. To investigate and gather clear information about how big the impact of this consequence could be. This is the first point we mentioned earlier. Avoid taking action alone, discuss as a team. If you believe in yourself too much, you will be in danger. A few weeks later, the CEO and his secret task force decided to stop producing this type of drug. But they did not recall the drugs that were already on the market. Doing this is to manage the potential risks, and this is the duty and ethics of a businessperson. You cannot do business in a way that can harm others' health. And it also gives the company the opportunity to research a new drug that is more effective and has fewer side effects. At the same time, maintaining the values, benefits, and profits for the company. Moreover, James also studied and collaborated with many experts to conduct a detailed investigation into all factors related to this matter. What is the cause of the problem, and what kind of people are not suitable for using this type of drug. Both the decision and the problem-solving of James were not based on any single principle, but his decision was full of flexibility.
But it's a pity, even if you learn and master the skills of thinking and solving gray problems well, in real life, there are many uncertain factors that you cannot control, and that can cause you to make wrong decisions. Even though James worked very carefully and made decisions with great care, 10 years later, 100 people died out of 100,000 people who were tested, and another 400 people developed other diseases. In this story, more than 500 people died directly and indirectly. But more than 10,000 people were cured of cancer. If you look at the percentage of recoveries, in this figure, it's a 99% success rate. Even though less than 0.5% of people died. Is this really a result to be celebrated? Not necessarily. A gray problem, even if solved, its result may not satisfy everyone. Therefore, at this point, I always tell you that even if you learn and practice how to solve this kind of problem expertly, you know the methods and frameworks for thinking, for analyzing different reasons.
Be careful about your own weaknesses, think about maximizing positive results, think about the surrounding context, think about ethics, humanity, and solve problems with flexibility, you can still make the wrong decision. Because this type of problem, even if solved, it's not certain that you will receive praise from everyone. Sometimes you have no choice. There are only two choices: a small mistake and a big mistake. You have only one way, which is to choose the smallest possible mistake. After considering all these things, you have to ask yourself many more questions.
What point can we accept? What is the level we can accept? And what are the things we absolutely cannot accept? Different decisions lead to different results. But no matter what decision you make, I tell you all not to regret your own decision. What's important is your action after you have made the decision. Do what you can to make your decision the best possible one you can make at that time.